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2012.02.02| Norway: Stronger labour market than expected
Registered unemployment (including those on labour market measures) in January was 81 561 compared to 83 887 last month. Nordea and consensus was 84 300. The unadjusted unemployment rate was 2.8% compared to Nordea and consensus at 2.8%.
This was a surprise to us. Unemployment fell by 2 300 persons while we had expected a gradual rise in unemployment in line with the weaker outlook in some industries. One should be a bit care full to judge the January figure The drop is dependent on getting the seasonal factors right since unadjusted unemployment always rise sharply in January (hence the rise in the unadjusted unemployment rate from 2.4% to 2.8%). Still no doubt this is a strong figure. It seems to be easier for all the new entrants on the labour market in January to find a job. Unemployment is down 5700 persons y/y compared to 4500 y/y in December.
The seasonal adjusted unemployment rate excluding those on labour market measures (which is what Norges Bank forecast) is now about 2.4% somewhat on the downside to Norges Bank forecast for Q1 given in the October monetary policy report. This despite the general economic outlook being on the weak side. Registered unemployment is significant for Norges Banks view on the output gap and hence monetary policy. We are now in doubt about our forecast for another rate cut.
Erik Bruce
Chief Analyst
Economic Research
This was a surprise to us. Unemployment fell by 2 300 persons while we had expected a gradual rise in unemployment in line with the weaker outlook in some industries. One should be a bit care full to judge the January figure The drop is dependent on getting the seasonal factors right since unadjusted unemployment always rise sharply in January (hence the rise in the unadjusted unemployment rate from 2.4% to 2.8%). Still no doubt this is a strong figure. It seems to be easier for all the new entrants on the labour market in January to find a job. Unemployment is down 5700 persons y/y compared to 4500 y/y in December.
The seasonal adjusted unemployment rate excluding those on labour market measures (which is what Norges Bank forecast) is now about 2.4% somewhat on the downside to Norges Bank forecast for Q1 given in the October monetary policy report. This despite the general economic outlook being on the weak side. Registered unemployment is significant for Norges Banks view on the output gap and hence monetary policy. We are now in doubt about our forecast for another rate cut.
Erik Bruce
Chief Analyst
Economic Research
2012.02.01| Norway: Slightly higher unemployment
The Labour Force Survey (LFS) unemployment rate in November was 3.4%% unchanged from October (revised up from 3.3%). Consensus and Nordea was 3.3%.
In July unemployment was 3.2% and there is a slight upward trend during the autumn. Employment is still rising, but labour supply is rising somewhat faster. We would normally not give much weight to such a short lived and moderate movement given the volatility in these figures. Still we expect unemployment to move somewhat upwards the coming months given the weakness in some industries and these could be the sign of such a trend. Norges Bank forecasted the opposite movement back in October with unemployment decreasing to an average at 3.0% this year. If anything slightly on the weak side to Norges Banks forecast.
Ignore the January PMI
To our surprise it seems that the market gave some weight to the seemingly strong January manufacturing PMI released earlier today. The PMI obviously have some problems with the seasonal factors or something like that. After the hard to understand weak December figure at 46.6 it now increased to 54.9. If anything one should look at the average which is about 51. That is in line with the about sideways trend in manufacturing production. Norges Bank will conclude as we do.
Erik Bruce
Chief Analyst
Economic Research
In July unemployment was 3.2% and there is a slight upward trend during the autumn. Employment is still rising, but labour supply is rising somewhat faster. We would normally not give much weight to such a short lived and moderate movement given the volatility in these figures. Still we expect unemployment to move somewhat upwards the coming months given the weakness in some industries and these could be the sign of such a trend. Norges Bank forecasted the opposite movement back in October with unemployment decreasing to an average at 3.0% this year. If anything slightly on the weak side to Norges Banks forecast.
Ignore the January PMI
To our surprise it seems that the market gave some weight to the seemingly strong January manufacturing PMI released earlier today. The PMI obviously have some problems with the seasonal factors or something like that. After the hard to understand weak December figure at 46.6 it now increased to 54.9. If anything one should look at the average which is about 51. That is in line with the about sideways trend in manufacturing production. Norges Bank will conclude as we do.
Erik Bruce
Chief Analyst
Economic Research
2012.01.31| Norway: Retail sales a bit on the weak side
Growth in retail sales in December was-0.3 % m/m. Nordea forecast was 0.0% m/m while consensus was 0.1%m/m. Consumption of goods were down 0.1% m/m.
There is an upward trend in retail sale, but it is much weaker than what is implied by Norges Bank’s forecast. In December and November retail sales were up only 1.1% y/y (volume and adjusted) indicating a very moderate Christmas shopping. Consumption probably grew by 2 ¼% in 2011 compared to Norges Banks forecast for a growth at 2 ¾% given as late as in October. And everything indicates that it’s forecast for a growth at 4 ½% in 2012 is far too high.
Credit growth in December was 6.7% y/y up from 6.6% last month. Nordea was 6.7% while consensus was 6.4%. The upside surprise was credit growth to the firms which increased rather strongly. Credit growth to household is nearly flat. No signs of a credit crunch this far at least.
Norges Bank will probably give most weight to the consumer figures which is on the weak side to its forecast. We continue to believe in a cut this year.
In February, Norges Bank will purchase foreign exchange equivalent to NOK 350 million per day for the Government Pension Fund Global, unchanged from January.
Erik Bruce
Chief Analyst
Economic Research
There is an upward trend in retail sale, but it is much weaker than what is implied by Norges Bank’s forecast. In December and November retail sales were up only 1.1% y/y (volume and adjusted) indicating a very moderate Christmas shopping. Consumption probably grew by 2 ¼% in 2011 compared to Norges Banks forecast for a growth at 2 ¾% given as late as in October. And everything indicates that it’s forecast for a growth at 4 ½% in 2012 is far too high.
Credit growth in December was 6.7% y/y up from 6.6% last month. Nordea was 6.7% while consensus was 6.4%. The upside surprise was credit growth to the firms which increased rather strongly. Credit growth to household is nearly flat. No signs of a credit crunch this far at least.
Norges Bank will probably give most weight to the consumer figures which is on the weak side to its forecast. We continue to believe in a cut this year.
In February, Norges Bank will purchase foreign exchange equivalent to NOK 350 million per day for the Government Pension Fund Global, unchanged from January.
Erik Bruce
Chief Analyst
Economic Research
2012.01.18 | Nordea Economic Research: Fed to ease policy through communication?
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on 24-25 January should be considered a potential very big market mover. Low for even longer: Given the recent generally dovish comments from FOMC members we believe the committee will try to achieve an easing in financial conditions through its communication of participants’ monetary policy projections.
Rising odds of QE3: If the Fed proves unable to achieve a significant easing in financial conditions including reductions of longer-term interest rates through its publication of projections for the policy rate, we are likely to see QE3 announced later this year.
The Fed’s communications might push the expected first rate hike into 2014, significantly beyond our current forecast of the first hike in mid-2013. Depending on the FOMC’s economic forecasts, it could necessitate major revisions of our forecast for the entire USD yield curve.
Going forward, the Fed’s policy rate forecasts are likely to make market expectations of Fed policy more responsive to changes in the economic outlook.
Last ned rapport
Rising odds of QE3: If the Fed proves unable to achieve a significant easing in financial conditions including reductions of longer-term interest rates through its publication of projections for the policy rate, we are likely to see QE3 announced later this year.
The Fed’s communications might push the expected first rate hike into 2014, significantly beyond our current forecast of the first hike in mid-2013. Depending on the FOMC’s economic forecasts, it could necessitate major revisions of our forecast for the entire USD yield curve.
Going forward, the Fed’s policy rate forecasts are likely to make market expectations of Fed policy more responsive to changes in the economic outlook.
Last ned rapport
