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2010.07.09| Mens vi venter...
After massive sales earlier this month crude oil prices have gained around 6% since Thursday evening’s low. Brent is now trading at USD 75.10/barrel and WTI at USD 75.85/barrel.
Crude oil prices jumped by more than a dollar as the weekly US crude inventories dropped far more than expected by -4.96m barrels. The hurricane Alex led to a disruption in the oil production and shipments of crude and oil products in the Gulf of Mexico and influenced last week’s inventory report. Petrol stocks increased more than expected by 1.32m barrels (expected: -0.2m) and distillate stocks increased less than expected by 0.3m barrels (expected: 1.4m) most interesting figure in the report was the impressive 29.9% y/y (4-week average) growth in distillate demand. Distillate demand is closely related to the industrial cycles and activity in the US is improving. In addition, the record-high temperatures on the US East Coast have increased the demand for distillates as people moved inside and switched on their air conditioner on full speed.
Petrol demand increased more modestly on average for the last four weeks by 2.4% compared to the same period last year. We look for a rise in petrol demand over the summer, but this rise should be moderate due to the high unemployment rate and US home prices on the cusp of a new decline, making US consumers less likely to spend. In other words, if the hurricane season does not damage production facilities or disrupt deliveries, we only foresee a moderate rise in petrol prices.
Market fundamentals will continue to improve although the recovery is slow. The IMF’s upward revision of its growth forecasts to 4.5% from 4.1% and the EIA’s upward revision of demand estimates support the view that we will avoid a double dip and that the underlying demand trend will continue upwards, but slowly.
Market sentiment has improved slightly as the market awaits the kick-off of the Q2 reporting season on Monday 12 July with Alcoa Inc. and the publication of the stress tests of the European banks, which are the key factors for the direction of prices short term. These factors will contribute to market sentiment and thus the appetite for risky assets such as commodities and equities.
If the stress tests help provide further insight into the situation of 91 European banks, we expect this to bring stability and dampen the uncertainties affecting markets in recent months. This could help to boost risk appetite. The downside is if only parts of the stress tests are published. In this situation the market might feel that it lacks sufficient information, in turn fuelling worries that negative news is not being disclosed. In addition, the various countries must have a programme for action clearly showing how they intend to handle troubled banks. If the authorities seem unable to act now in the wake of the turmoil over Greece earlier this year, this will be a negative and fuel worries as to whether the authorities can address the banking sector problems.
We have seen only a few earnings warnings ahead of this reporting season. That suggests a limited number of negative surprises when the figures are out, which benefits sentiment. Perhaps the guidance is the key uncertain factor as worries over the growth picture have increased.
If the rumours that BP can stop the oil leak earlier than anticipated prove to hold, this could inject some optimism into the market.
If these factors materialise as expected, we see this boosting market sentiment short term. Also, it should fuel risk appetite and lift the trading range for oil from the current low level of USD 70-75/barrel to USD 75-80/barrel.
Major negative surprises could, on the other hand, drive prices below current levels.
2010.07.01| Norge: Uendret ledighet
Registered unemployment (s.a. and incl. labour market measures) in June was 90,008 persons compared to 90,138 last month. Consensus and Nordea forecast was 90,500. The unadjusted rate increased to 2.8% from 2.7%, as expected.
Today’s figures were slightly on the strong side, but the picture is still the same of unemployment moving sideways/slightly downwards.
Norges Bank stated in their latest Monetary Policy Report (June) that it expects registered unemployment to stay close to the level seen the last months throughout the year. Today’s figures should be well in line with that view.
2010.06.24| Oljemarkedet - effektene av endringer i CNY og EUR
Economic centre of gravity and oil demand to shift towards emerging economies in a high speed.
Gradual CNY revaluation expected to expand Chinese crude oil imports.
Softer EUR and higher oil prices may dampen oil consumption in the Euro zone.
Last ned hele rapporten 
2010.06.11| USA: Nytt fall i boligprisene like rundt hjørnet
Despite the recent recovery in the housing market, a pending wave of supply of homes and lack of demand mean that home prices are likely on the verge of a double dip. The pending wave of supply is due to around 5m of seriously delinquent mortgage loans.
We expect home prices to fall by another 5-10% from the current level to the end of 2011.
While a home price decline of 5-10% is not enough to trigger a new financial crisis, it will contribute to slowing down overall economic growth in the coming quarters relative to the pace seen in the first two quarters this year.
US Update
Johnny Bo Jakobsen
Chief Analyst
Economic Research
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Afrika er mer enn fotball-VM
Afrika har de siste 10 årene opplevd høyere økonomisk vekst og prisgevinst på sine eksportvarer enn trolig noen gang tidligere. Kinas fremvekst har bidratt til dette. Les Steinar Juels artikkel
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